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Arges Pitesti vs Dacia Unirea Braila — Liga II 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
10/27/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 14Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin (Piteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arges Pitesti81%
×Draw12%
Dacia Unirea Braila6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
2.91
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.71

Arges Pitesti creates 310% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 19 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.61
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.68

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.73
Dacia Unirea Braila
4.21

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
94%
Arges Pitesti or Dacia Unirea Braila
88%
Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila
19%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
62%
Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
94%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
78%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
54%
Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
51%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
16%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
93%
Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 2.91

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
81%
level
12%
Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
6%

Arges Pitesti at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arges Pitesti vs Dacia Unirea Braila

Arges Pitesti beat Dacia Unirea Braila 4-1 in Liga II on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin (Piteşti).