Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arges Pitesti vs CSM Reşiţa — Liga II 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
3/16/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Arges Pitesti51%
×Draw26%
CSM Reşiţa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.54
CSM Reşiţa
0.97

Arges Pitesti creates 59% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 64 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.61
CSM Reşiţa
1.22

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.73
CSM Reşiţa
1.47

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

CSM Reşiţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
76%
Arges Pitesti or CSM Reşiţa
74%
Draw or CSM Reşiţa
49%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
26%
CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
79%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
45%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
20%
CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
62%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
25%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
68%
CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

CSM Reşiţa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.22 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
51%
level
26%
CSM Reşiţa scores more
24%

Arges Pitesti at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Arges Pitesti 1–0 CSM Reşiţa

Arges Pitesti beat CSM Reşiţa 1-0 in Liga II on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Mioveni.