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Arges Pitesti vs Concordia — Liga II 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
CANC
09:00
Concordia
Concordia
3/28/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Arges Pitesti49%
×Draw27%
Concordia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.44
Concordia
0.91

Arges Pitesti creates 58% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 89 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.61
Concordia
1.09

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.73
Concordia
1.27

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Concordia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
76%
Arges Pitesti or Concordia
73%
Draw or Concordia
51%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
24%
Concordia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
76%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
42%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
18%
Concordia 1+ goals
60%
Concordia 2+ goals
23%
Concordia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
67%
Concordia (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Concordia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + Concordia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Concordia attack 1.09 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
49%
level
27%
Concordia scores more
24%

Arges Pitesti at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arges Pitesti face Concordia (Liga II)

Liga II returns with Arges Pitesti hosting Concordia. Match starts March 28, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.