Arges Pitesti 2–1 Aerostar Bacau: Result & Stats

Arges Pitesti

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Aerostar Bacau

A. Nilă 90'

A. Buleică 6'

C. Vraciu 56' (pen)

3/30/2019

Liga II · Round 27Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin (Piteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Arges Pitesti62%

×Draw22%

Aerostar Bacau16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchAerostar Bacau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.85

Arges Pitesti

1.92

Aerostar Bacau

0.85

Arges Pitesti creates 126% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 31 away

1.61

creates per match

0.97

0.73

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.61

Aerostar Bacau

0.97

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.73

Aerostar Bacau

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Aerostar Bacau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

84%

Arges Pitesti or Aerostar Bacau

78%

Draw or Aerostar Bacau

38%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

37%

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

85%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

57%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

30%

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals

57%

Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals

21%

Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

80%

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.92

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

62%

level

22%

Aerostar Bacau scores more

16%

Arges Pitesti at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. Buleică

56'

C. VraciuPenalty

69'

S. Ichim← A. Ciocâlteu

75'

A. Popa← A. Buleică

75'

V. Buhăcianu← A. Pop

80'

A. Nilă← I. Năstăsie

80'

V. Gheorghe← A. Panait

82'

C. Drugă← R. Adăscăliţei

90'

A. Nilă

Arges

Aerostar

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: E. Augustin

75'▲A. Popa←▼A. Buleică

80'▲A. Nilă←▼I. Năstăsie

80'▲V. Gheorghe←▼A. Panait

Arges Pitesti substitutes

PopaNilăGheorghe

Manager: F. Bratu

69'▲S. Ichim←▼A. Ciocâlteu

75'▲V. Buhăcianu←▼A. Pop

82'▲C. Drugă←▼R. Adăscăliţei

Aerostar Bacau substitutes

IchimBuhăcianuDrugă