Argentinos JRS 0–1 Union Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Argentinos JRS

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Union Santa Fe

10/21/2018

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 9Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Argentinos JRS39%

×Draw32%

Union Santa Fe30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Argentinos JRSExpected goals in this matchUnion Santa Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.86

Argentinos JRS

1.03

Union Santa Fe

0.86

Argentinos JRS creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

1.03

creates per match

0.94

0.78

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Argentinos JRS

1.03

Union Santa Fe

0.94

allows per match

Argentinos JRS

0.78

Union Santa Fe

1.03

+0.97scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.97scores more

Union Santa Fe+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Union Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw

70%

Argentinos JRS or Union Santa Fe

68%

Draw or Union Santa Fe

61%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

15%

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

64%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

28%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

9%

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

58%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

21%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

57%

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.78 · 6 matches

Union Santa Fe away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.03 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 1.03 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Union Santa Fe attack 0.94 + Argentinos JRS defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more

39%

level

32%

Union Santa Fe scores more

30%

Argentinos JRS at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff