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Argentinos JRS vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
9/30/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Argentinos JRS37%
×Draw29%
Atletico Tucuman34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentinos JRS
1.11
Atletico Tucuman
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Argentinos JRS
1.03
Atletico Tucuman
1.33

allows per match

Argentinos JRS
0.78
Atletico Tucuman
1.20

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.97scores more
Atletico Tucuman-0.76scores less

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Atletico Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw
66%
Argentinos JRS or Atletico Tucuman
71%
Draw or Atletico Tucuman
63%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+
15%
Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals
67%
Argentinos JRS 2+ goals
30%
Argentinos JRS 3+ goals
10%
Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
65%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
29%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)
52%
Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.78 · 6 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 1.03 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.33 + Argentinos JRS defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more
37%
level
29%
Atletico Tucuman scores more
34%

Argentinos JRS at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Profesional Argentina: Argentinos JRS 0–0 Atletico Tucuman

Argentinos JRS and Atletico Tucuman drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Diego Armando Maradona in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.