Bravos do Maquis FC 2–1 Nacional de Benguela

Bravos do Maquis FC

FT

2 – 1

Nacional de Benguela

4/21/2012

Girabola · Round 8Estádio Mundunduleno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC53%

×Draw31%

Nacional de Benguela16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bravos do Maquis FCExpected goals in this matchNacional de Benguela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.54

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.22

Nacional de Benguela

0.54

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 126% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 7 away

1.30

creates per match

0.29

0.79

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.30

Nacional de Benguela

0.29

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.79

Nacional de Benguela

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Nacional de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Nacional de Benguela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–19%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw

84%

Bravos do Maquis FC or Nacional de Benguela

69%

Draw or Nacional de Benguela

47%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+

24%

Nacional de Benguela wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals

70%

Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals

34%

Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals

12%

Nacional de Benguela 1+ goals

42%

Nacional de Benguela 2+ goals

10%

Nacional de Benguela 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)

76%

Nacional de Benguela (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 113 matches

Nacional de Benguela away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Nacional de Benguela defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Nacional de Benguela attack 0.29 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more

53%

level

31%

Nacional de Benguela scores more

16%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff