Benfica Luanda 3–1 Recreativo da Caála

Benfica Luanda

FT

3 – 1

Recreativo da Caála

11/3/2013

Girabola · Round 30Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Benfica Luanda48%

×Draw29%

Recreativo da Caála23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica LuandaExpected goals in this matchRecreativo da Caála

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.79

Benfica Luanda

1.27

Recreativo da Caála

0.79

Benfica Luanda creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

1.23

creates per match

0.73

0.85

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Benfica Luanda

1.23

Recreativo da Caála

0.73

allows per match

Benfica Luanda

0.85

Recreativo da Caála

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica Luanda+0.00on par

Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Luanda ↓

Recreativo da Caála →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Benfica Luanda or draw

77%

Benfica Luanda or Recreativo da Caála

71%

Draw or Recreativo da Caála

52%

Winning margin

Benfica Luanda wins by 2+

22%

Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Benfica Luanda 1+ goals

72%

Benfica Luanda 2+ goals

36%

Benfica Luanda 3+ goals

14%

Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals

55%

Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals

19%

Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)

67%

Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Luanda at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Recreativo da Caála away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Luanda attack 1.23 + Recreativo da Caála defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.73 + Benfica Luanda defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benfica Luanda scores more

48%

level

29%

Recreativo da Caála scores more

23%

Benfica Luanda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benfica Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff