Académica do Soyo 1–1 Progresso: Result & Stats

Académica do Soyo

FT

1 – 1

Progresso

10/3/2012

Girabola · Round 28Estádio dos Embondeiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Académica do Soyo47%

×Draw27%

Progresso26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Académica do SoyoExpected goals in this matchProgresso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.98

Académica do Soyo

1.42

Progresso

0.98

Académica do Soyo creates 45% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 56 away

1.10

creates per match

0.66

1.30

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Académica do Soyo

1.10

Progresso

0.66

allows per match

Académica do Soyo

1.30

Progresso

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Académica do Soyo+0.00on par

Progresso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Soyo ↓

Progresso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Académica do Soyo or draw

74%

Académica do Soyo or Progresso

73%

Draw or Progresso

53%

Winning margin

Académica do Soyo wins by 2+

23%

Progresso wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Académica do Soyo 1+ goals

76%

Académica do Soyo 2+ goals

41%

Académica do Soyo 3+ goals

17%

Progresso 1+ goals

62%

Progresso 2+ goals

26%

Progresso 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Académica do Soyo (draw refunded)

64%

Progresso (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Soyo at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Progresso away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.73 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Soyo attack 1.10 + Progresso defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.42

Progresso attack 0.66 + Académica do Soyo defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Académica do Soyo scores more

47%

level

27%

Progresso scores more

26%

Académica do Soyo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Académica do Soyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff