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Académica do Soyo vs Atlético do Namibe — Girabola 2012

Académica do Soyo
Académica do Soyo
FT
2 – 3
Atlético do Namibe
Atlético do Namibe
5/5/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 10Estádio dos Embondeiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Académica do Soyo39%
×Draw26%
Atlético do Namibe35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Académica do Soyo
1.41
Atlético do Namibe
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Académica do Soyo
1.11
Atlético do Namibe
1.30

allows per match

Académica do Soyo
1.33
Atlético do Namibe
1.70

finishing

Académica do Soyo+0.00on par
Atlético do Namibe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Soyo ↓

Atlético do Namibe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Académica do Soyo or draw
65%
Académica do Soyo or Atlético do Namibe
74%
Draw or Atlético do Namibe
61%

Winning margin

Académica do Soyo wins by 2+
18%
Atlético do Namibe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Académica do Soyo 1+ goals
76%
Académica do Soyo 2+ goals
41%
Académica do Soyo 3+ goals
17%
Atlético do Namibe 1+ goals
73%
Atlético do Namibe 2+ goals
38%
Atlético do Namibe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Académica do Soyo (draw refunded)
53%
Atlético do Namibe (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Soyo at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Atlético do Namibe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Soyo attack 1.11 + Atlético do Namibe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atlético do Namibe attack 1.30 + Académica do Soyo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Académica do Soyo scores more
39%
level
26%
Atlético do Namibe scores more
35%

Académica do Soyo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Académica do Soyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Académica do Soyo vs Atlético do Namibe

Atlético do Namibe beat Académica do Soyo 3-2 in Girabola on May 5, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio dos Embondeiros.