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Argentino Rosario vs Ituzaingó — Primera C 2026

Argentino Rosario
Argentino Rosario
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ituzaingó
Ituzaingó
7/6/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 1Estadio José María Olaeta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Argentino Rosario40%
×Draw31%
Ituzaingó30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentino Rosario
1.09
Ituzaingó
0.90

Argentino Rosario creates 21% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 95 away

creates per match

Argentino Rosario
1.30
Ituzaingó
0.94

allows per match

Argentino Rosario
0.86
Ituzaingó
0.88

finishing

Argentino Rosario+0.00on par
Ituzaingó+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino Rosario ↓

Ituzaingó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Argentino Rosario or draw
70%
Argentino Rosario or Ituzaingó
69%
Draw or Ituzaingó
60%

Winning margin

Argentino Rosario wins by 2+
16%
Ituzaingó wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Argentino Rosario 1+ goals
66%
Argentino Rosario 2+ goals
30%
Argentino Rosario 3+ goals
10%
Ituzaingó 1+ goals
59%
Ituzaingó 2+ goals
23%
Ituzaingó 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Argentino Rosario (draw refunded)
57%
Ituzaingó (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino Rosario at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Ituzaingó away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino Rosario attack 1.30 + Ituzaingó defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.09

Ituzaingó attack 0.94 + Argentino Rosario defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Argentino Rosario scores more
40%
level
31%
Ituzaingó scores more
30%

Argentino Rosario at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Argentino Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Argentino Rosario 0–1 Ituzaingó

Ituzaingó beat Argentino Rosario 1-0 in Primera C on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Olaeta in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.