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Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Armenio — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio
4/12/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 11Barranca Quilmena stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Argentino Quilmes39%
×Draw31%
Deportivo Armenio30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentino Quilmes
1.08
Deportivo Armenio
0.92

Argentino Quilmes creates 17% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 125 away

creates per match

Argentino Quilmes
1.22
Deportivo Armenio
0.99

allows per match

Argentino Quilmes
0.85
Deportivo Armenio
0.94

finishing

Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par
Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino Quilmes ↓

Deportivo Armenio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Argentino Quilmes or draw
70%
Argentino Quilmes or Deportivo Armenio
69%
Draw or Deportivo Armenio
61%

Winning margin

Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals
66%
Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals
29%
Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals
60%
Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)
56%
Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino Quilmes at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 124 matches

Deportivo Armenio away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.94 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino Quilmes attack 1.22 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Deportivo Armenio attack 0.99 + Argentino Quilmes defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Argentino Quilmes scores more
39%
level
31%
Deportivo Armenio scores more
30%

Argentino Quilmes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Argentino Quilmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Armenio

Argentino Quilmes and Deportivo Armenio drew 1-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Barranca Quilmena stadium in Quilmes.