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Argentino Monte Maíz vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Argentino Monte Maíz
Argentino Monte Maíz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
3/25/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 3Estadio Olimpo de Laborde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Argentino Monte Maíz56%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Peñarol18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentino Monte Maíz
1.58
Sportivo Peñarol
0.78

Argentino Monte Maíz creates 103% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 62 away

creates per match

Argentino Monte Maíz
1.50
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Argentino Monte Maíz
0.69
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Argentino Monte Maíz+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino Monte Maíz ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Argentino Monte Maíz or draw
82%
Argentino Monte Maíz or Sportivo Peñarol
75%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
44%

Winning margin

Argentino Monte Maíz wins by 2+
30%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Argentino Monte Maíz 1+ goals
79%
Argentino Monte Maíz 2+ goals
47%
Argentino Monte Maíz 3+ goals
21%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
54%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
18%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Argentino Monte Maíz (draw refunded)
75%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino Monte Maíz at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.69 · 72 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino Monte Maíz attack 1.50 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Argentino Monte Maíz defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Argentino Monte Maíz scores more
56%
level
25%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
18%

Argentino Monte Maíz at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Argentino Monte Maíz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Argentino Monte Maíz vs Sportivo Peñarol

Argentino Monte Maíz beat Sportivo Peñarol 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpo de Laborde in Laborde, Córdoba.