Argentino de Merlo 1–0 Midland: Result & Stats

Argentino de Merlo

Pens

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Midland

Unknown 120+8' (pen), 120+7' (pen), 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen)

C. Barrios 19'

Unknown 120+7' (pen), 120+5' (pen), 120+3' (pen)

11/19/2022

Primera C · Promotion Play-offs - FinalEstadio Juan Carlos Brieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Argentino de Merlo43%

×Draw27%

Midland30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Argentino de MerloExpected goals in this matchMidland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.10

Argentino de Merlo

1.37

Midland

1.10

Argentino de Merlo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 97 away

1.50

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Argentino de Merlo

1.50

Midland

1.20

allows per match

Argentino de Merlo

1.00

Midland

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Argentino de Merlo+0.00on par

Midland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino de Merlo ↓

Midland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Argentino de Merlo or draw

70%

Argentino de Merlo or Midland

73%

Draw or Midland

57%

Winning margin

Argentino de Merlo wins by 2+

20%

Midland wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Argentino de Merlo 1+ goals

75%

Argentino de Merlo 2+ goals

40%

Argentino de Merlo 3+ goals

16%

Midland 1+ goals

67%

Midland 2+ goals

30%

Midland 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Argentino de Merlo (draw refunded)

59%

Midland (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino de Merlo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 58 matches

Midland away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.24 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino de Merlo attack 1.50 + Midland defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.37

Midland attack 1.20 + Argentino de Merlo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Argentino de Merlo scores more

43%

level

27%

Midland scores more

30%

Argentino de Merlo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Argentino de Merlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

C. Barrios

120+3'

Penalty

120+4'

Penalty

120+4'

Missed penalty

120+5'

Penalty

120+5'

Penalty

120+6'

Missed penalty

120+6'

Missed penalty

120+7'

Penalty

120+7'

Penalty

120+8'

Penalty

120+8'

Missed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff