Argentino de Merlo 3–0 Argentino Quilmes

Argentino de Merlo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Argentino Quilmes

T. Jerez 87'

C. Marcial 81'

A. Salvador 18'

7/10/2026

Primera B Metropolitana · Round 24Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Argentino de Merlo45%

×Draw28%

Argentino Quilmes27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Argentino de MerloExpected goals in this matchArgentino Quilmes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.95

Argentino de Merlo

1.31

Argentino Quilmes

0.95

Argentino de Merlo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 124 away

1.27

creates per match

0.95

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Argentino de Merlo

1.27

Argentino Quilmes

0.95

allows per match

Argentino de Merlo

0.95

Argentino Quilmes

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Argentino de Merlo+0.00on par

Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino de Merlo ↓

Argentino Quilmes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Argentino de Merlo or draw

73%

Argentino de Merlo or Argentino Quilmes

72%

Draw or Argentino Quilmes

55%

Winning margin

Argentino de Merlo wins by 2+

21%

Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Argentino de Merlo 1+ goals

73%

Argentino de Merlo 2+ goals

38%

Argentino de Merlo 3+ goals

14%

Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals

61%

Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals

25%

Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Argentino de Merlo (draw refunded)

62%

Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino de Merlo at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 73 matches

Argentino Quilmes away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino de Merlo attack 1.27 + Argentino Quilmes defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Argentino Quilmes attack 0.95 + Argentino de Merlo defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Argentino de Merlo scores more

45%

level

28%

Argentino Quilmes scores more

27%

Argentino de Merlo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Argentino de Merlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

18'

39'

44'

46'

N. Sanchez← L. Escudero

46'

50'

52'

54'

61'

63'

T. Jerez← F. Maldonado

63'

E. Cohen

64'

V. Lopez

69'

E. Diez← J. Kruger

69'

F. Filliol← L. Filosa

75'

M. Compagnucci← E. Torancio

77'

C. Marcial← G. Scisci

81'

84'

84'

87'

88'

B. Costella← J. Ortiz

88'

T. Candelaresi← A. Salvador

90'

M. Compagnucci

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Argentino de Merlo 3–0 Argentino Quilmes

Argentino de Merlo beat Argentino Quilmes 3-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on July 10, 2026.

Goals: A. Salvador (18'), C. Marcial (81'), T. Jerez (87').

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva in Merlo.

Argentino de Merlo vs Argentino Quilmes — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B Metropolitana: Argentino de Merlo 3–0 Argentino Quilmes