Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Argentina vs Venezuela — League #34 2026

Argentina
Argentina
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Venezuela
Venezuela
L. Messi 82'
Á. Di María 79'
N. González 35'
3/25/2022League #34League #34 · Group Stage - 17Estadio Alberto José Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Argentina71%
×Draw20%
Venezuela9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentina
1.86
Venezuela
0.47

Argentina creates 296% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

Argentina
1.67
Venezuela
0.62

allows per match

Argentina
0.33
Venezuela
2.05

finishing

Argentina+0.00on par
Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentina ↓

Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Argentina or draw
91%
Argentina or Venezuela
80%
Draw or Venezuela
29%

Winning margin

Argentina wins by 2+
44%
Venezuela wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Argentina 1+ goals
84%
Argentina 2+ goals
55%
Argentina 3+ goals
28%
Venezuela 1+ goals
37%
Venezuela 2+ goals
8%
Venezuela 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Argentina (draw refunded)
89%
Venezuela (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentina at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Venezuela away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentina attack 1.67 + Venezuela defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.86

Venezuela attack 0.62 + Argentina defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Argentina scores more
71%
level
20%
Venezuela scores more
9%

Argentina at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Argentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. MessiArgentinaArgentina · F
9.2

Match Events

12'
Miguel Navarro
35'
N. González↳ R. De Paul
46'
J. Murillo← M. Navarro
62'
L. González← C. Cásseres
62'
F. Aristeguieta← Josef Martínez
64'
Á. Correa← J. Correa
67'
Jhon Chancellor
69'
Yangel Herrera
70'
Á. Di María← A. Mac Allister
71'
Roberto Rosales
77'
D. Machís← Y. Herrera
79'
Á. Di María↳ R. De Paul
82'
L. Messi↳ Á. Di María
83'
J. Savarino← S. Rondón
87'
L. Boyé← N. González
88'
G. Rodríguez← L. Paredes

Possession

73%Argentina

Shots

16Argentina

Pass accuracy

56%Argentina

Statistics

ArgentinaVenezuela
Overview
73%Possession27%
16Total Shots3
2Corners1
15Fouls20
Shots
16Total Shots3
6On Target1
7Off Target2
3Blocked0
7Inside Box1
9Outside Box2
Passing
73%Possession27%
717Total Passes264
648Accurate Passes184
90%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls20
0Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Argentina vs Venezuela

Argentina beat Venezuela 3-0 in League #34 on March 25, 2022.

Goals: N. González (35'), Á. Di María (79'), L. Messi (82').

Argentina controlled possession (73%) and registered 16 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto José Armando in Ciudad de Buenos Aires.