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Argentina vs El Salvador — Friendlies 2026

Argentina
Argentina
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
El Salvador
El Salvador
3/23/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Lincoln Financial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Argentina80%
×Draw15%
El Salvador6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentina
2.39
El Salvador
0.49

Argentina creates 388% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

creates per match

Argentina
2.84
El Salvador
0.59

allows per match

Argentina
0.40
El Salvador
1.94

finishing

Argentina+0.00on par
El Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentina ↓

El Salvador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Argentina or draw
94%
Argentina or El Salvador
85%
Draw or El Salvador
20%

Winning margin

Argentina wins by 2+
56%
El Salvador wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Argentina 1+ goals
91%
Argentina 2+ goals
69%
Argentina 3+ goals
42%
El Salvador 1+ goals
39%
El Salvador 2+ goals
9%
El Salvador 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Argentina (draw refunded)
93%
El Salvador (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentina at home — creates 2.84, concedes 0.40 · 25 matches

El Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentina attack 2.84 + El Salvador defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.39

El Salvador attack 0.59 + Argentina defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Argentina scores more
80%
level
15%
El Salvador scores more
6%

Argentina at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Argentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Argentina vs El Salvador

Argentina beat El Salvador 3-0 in Friendlies on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.