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Argentina vs Curaçao — Friendlies 2026

Argentina
Argentina
FT
7 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Curaçao
Curaçao
G. Montiel 87'
Á. Di María 78'
L. Messi 37', 33', 20'
E. Fernández 35'
N. González 23'
3/28/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Argentina82%
×Draw12%
Curaçao6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentina
2.75
Curaçao
0.59

Argentina creates 366% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 9 away

creates per match

Argentina
2.84
Curaçao
0.78

allows per match

Argentina
0.40
Curaçao
2.67

finishing

Argentina+0.00on par
Curaçao+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentina ↓

Curaçao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Argentina or draw
94%
Argentina or Curaçao
88%
Draw or Curaçao
18%

Winning margin

Argentina wins by 2+
61%
Curaçao wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Argentina 1+ goals
93%
Argentina 2+ goals
75%
Argentina 3+ goals
51%
Curaçao 1+ goals
45%
Curaçao 2+ goals
12%
Curaçao 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Argentina (draw refunded)
94%
Curaçao (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentina at home — creates 2.84, concedes 0.40 · 25 matches

Curaçao away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentina attack 2.84 + Curaçao defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.75

Curaçao attack 0.78 + Argentina defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Argentina scores more
82%
level
12%
Curaçao scores more
6%

Argentina at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Argentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
E. RoomCuraçaoCuraçao
7.3

Match Events

20'
L. Messi↳ G. Lo Celso
23'
N. González
33'
L. Messi↳ N. González
35'
E. Fernández↳ L. Messi
37'
L. Messi↳ G. Lo Celso
50'
E. Palacios← E. Fernández
50'
J. Foyth← N. Otamendi
50'
R. De Paul← A. Mac Allister
58'
J. Antonisse← K. Gorré
58'
R. Živković← R. Janga
67'
P. Dybala← Lautaro Martínez
67'
Á. Di María← G. Lo Celso
73'
X. Severina← B. Kuwas
73'
G. Troupée← R. van Eijma
78'
Á. Di María
80'
F. Armani← E. Martínez
81'
R. de Paul
82'
V. Anita
84'
G. Roemeratoe← V. Anita
84'
K. Felida← L. Bacuna
87'
G. Montiel↳ P. Dybala

Possession

50%Argentina

Shots

4Argentina

Pass accuracy

51%Argentina

Statistics

ArgentinaCuraçao
Overview
50%Possession50%
4Total Shots0
2Corners0
3Fouls2
Shots
4Total Shots0
2On Target0
2Off Target0
0Blocked0
2Inside Box0
2Outside Box0
Passing
50%Possession50%
125Total Passes129
110Accurate Passes111
88%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
3Fouls2

Match Recap: Argentina vs Curaçao

Argentina beat Curaçao 7-0 in Friendlies on March 28, 2023.

Goals: L. Messi (20', 33', 37'), N. González (23'), E. Fernández (35'), Á. Di María (78'), G. Montiel (87').

Argentina controlled possession (50%) and registered 4 shots to 0.

The match was played at Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero.