Argentina 1–1 Colombia: Result & Stats

Argentina

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Colombia

Lautaro Martínez 120+8' (pen), 7'

L. Paredes 120+6' (pen)

L. Messi 120+2' (pen)

M. Borja 120+7' (pen)

J. Cuadrado 120+1' (pen)

L. Díaz 61'

7/7/2021

Copa America · Semi-finalsEstádio Nacional de Brasília

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Argentina45%

×Draw29%

Colombia25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArgentinaExpected goals in this matchColombia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.85

Argentina

1.24

Colombia

0.85

Argentina creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

1.73

creates per match

1.25

0.45

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Argentina

1.73

Colombia

1.25

allows per match

Argentina

0.45

Colombia

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Argentina+0.00on par

Colombia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentina ↓

Colombia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Argentina or draw

75%

Argentina or Colombia

71%

Draw or Colombia

55%

Winning margin

Argentina wins by 2+

20%

Colombia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Argentina 1+ goals

71%

Argentina 2+ goals

35%

Argentina 3+ goals

13%

Colombia 1+ goals

57%

Colombia 2+ goals

21%

Colombia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Argentina (draw refunded)

64%

Colombia (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentina at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Colombia away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentina attack 1.73 + Colombia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.24

Colombia attack 1.25 + Argentina defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Argentina scores more

45%

level

29%

Colombia scores more

25%

Argentina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Argentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

L. Díaz

Colombia · M

8.5

Match Events

7'

Lautaro Martínez↳ L. Messi

21'

Giovani Lo Celso

45+4'

Juan Cuadrado

46'

G. Montiel← N. Molina

46'

46'

46'

55'

56'

L. Paredes← G. Lo Celso

60'

M. Borja← D. Zapata

61'

L. Díaz↳ E. Cardona

63'

Miguel Borja

67'

Á. Di María← N. González

72'

75'

86'

87'

88'

90+1'

120+1'

J. CuadradoPenalty

120+2'

L. MessiPenalty

120+3'

D. SánchezMissed penalty

120+4'

R. De PaulMissed penalty

120+5'

Y. MinaMissed penalty

120+6'

L. ParedesPenalty

120+7'

M. BorjaPenalty

120+8'

Lautaro MartínezPenalty

120+9'

E. CardonaMissed penalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgentinaColombia

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots14

5Corners3

20Fouls27

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target4

4Off Target3

5Blocked7

8Inside Box7

5Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

383Total Passes387

326Accurate Passes317

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls27

4Yellow Cards6

0Offsides1