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Argentina U20 W vs Venezuela U20 W — League #1085 2026

Argentina U20 W
Argentina U20 W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Venezuela U20 W
Venezuela U20 W
2/16/2026League #1085League #1085

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Argentina U20 W48%
×Draw25%
Venezuela U20 W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentina U20 W
1.63
Venezuela U20 W
1.17

Argentina U20 W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Argentina U20 W
2.00
Venezuela U20 W
1.00

allows per match

Argentina U20 W
1.33
Venezuela U20 W
1.25

finishing

Argentina U20 W+0.00on par
Venezuela U20 W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentina U20 W ↓

Venezuela U20 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Argentina U20 W or draw
73%
Argentina U20 W or Venezuela U20 W
75%
Draw or Venezuela U20 W
52%

Winning margin

Argentina U20 W wins by 2+
25%
Venezuela U20 W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Argentina U20 W 1+ goals
80%
Argentina U20 W 2+ goals
48%
Argentina U20 W 3+ goals
22%
Venezuela U20 W 1+ goals
69%
Venezuela U20 W 2+ goals
33%
Venezuela U20 W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Argentina U20 W (draw refunded)
64%
Venezuela U20 W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentina U20 W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Venezuela U20 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentina U20 W attack 2.00 + Venezuela U20 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Venezuela U20 W attack 1.00 + Argentina U20 W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Argentina U20 W scores more
48%
level
25%
Venezuela U20 W scores more
27%

Argentina U20 W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Argentina U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1085: Argentina U20 W 2–2 Venezuela U20 W

Argentina U20 W and Venezuela U20 W drew 2-2 in League #1085 on February 16, 2026.