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Argentina U20 W vs Colombia U20 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Argentina U20 W
Argentina U20 W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colombia U20 W
Colombia U20 W
12/19/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Argentina U20 W35%
×Draw36%
Colombia U20 W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentina U20 W
0.83
Colombia U20 W
0.75

Argentina U20 W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Argentina U20 W
1.00
Colombia U20 W
0.33

allows per match

Argentina U20 W
1.17
Colombia U20 W
0.67

finishing

Argentina U20 W+0.00on par
Colombia U20 W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentina U20 W ↓

Colombia U20 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Argentina U20 W or draw
70%
Argentina U20 W or Colombia U20 W
64%
Draw or Colombia U20 W
65%

Winning margin

Argentina U20 W wins by 2+
12%
Colombia U20 W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Argentina U20 W 1+ goals
56%
Argentina U20 W 2+ goals
20%
Argentina U20 W 3+ goals
5%
Colombia U20 W 1+ goals
53%
Colombia U20 W 2+ goals
17%
Colombia U20 W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Argentina U20 W (draw refunded)
54%
Colombia U20 W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentina U20 W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Colombia U20 W away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentina U20 W attack 1.00 + Colombia U20 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Colombia U20 W attack 0.33 + Argentina U20 W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Argentina U20 W scores more
35%
level
36%
Colombia U20 W scores more
30%

Argentina U20 W at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Argentina U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Argentina U20 W 1–0 Colombia U20 W

Argentina U20 W beat Colombia U20 W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on December 19, 2025.