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Qingdao Huanghai vs Zhejiang Yiteng — League One 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zhejiang Yiteng
Zhejiang Yiteng
3/31/2018League OneLeague One · Round 3GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai65%
×Draw20%
Zhejiang Yiteng15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
2.14
Zhejiang Yiteng
0.93

Qingdao Huanghai creates 130% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.15
Zhejiang Yiteng
0.80

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
1.06
Zhejiang Yiteng
2.13

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Zhejiang Yiteng+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Zhejiang Yiteng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
85%
Qingdao Huanghai or Zhejiang Yiteng
80%
Draw or Zhejiang Yiteng
35%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
41%
Zhejiang Yiteng wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
88%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
63%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
36%
Zhejiang Yiteng 1+ goals
61%
Zhejiang Yiteng 2+ goals
24%
Zhejiang Yiteng 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
81%
Zhejiang Yiteng (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Zhejiang Yiteng away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 2.15 + Zhejiang Yiteng defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.14

Zhejiang Yiteng attack 0.80 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
65%
level
20%
Zhejiang Yiteng scores more
15%

Qingdao Huanghai at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Huanghai vs Zhejiang Yiteng

Qingdao Huanghai and Zhejiang Yiteng drew 1-1 in League One on March 31, 2018.

The match was played at GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao).