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Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aretxabaleta
Aretxabaleta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Ignacio
San Ignacio
11/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Campo de Fútbol Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Aretxabaleta43%
×Draw26%
San Ignacio31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aretxabaleta
1.46
San Ignacio
1.20

Aretxabaleta creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 112 away

creates per match

Aretxabaleta
1.74
San Ignacio
0.99

allows per match

Aretxabaleta
1.41
San Ignacio
1.17

finishing

Aretxabaleta+0.00on par
San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aretxabaleta ↓

San Ignacio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Aretxabaleta or draw
69%
Aretxabaleta or San Ignacio
74%
Draw or San Ignacio
57%

Winning margin

Aretxabaleta wins by 2+
21%
San Ignacio wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aretxabaleta 1+ goals
77%
Aretxabaleta 2+ goals
43%
Aretxabaleta 3+ goals
18%
San Ignacio 1+ goals
70%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
34%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aretxabaleta (draw refunded)
58%
San Ignacio (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aretxabaleta at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aretxabaleta attack 1.74 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Aretxabaleta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aretxabaleta scores more
43%
level
26%
San Ignacio scores more
31%

Aretxabaleta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aretxabaleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio

Aretxabaleta and San Ignacio drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra in Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta).