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Aretxabaleta vs Portugalete — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aretxabaleta
Aretxabaleta
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Portugalete
Portugalete
1/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Campo de Fútbol Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Aretxabaleta35%
×Draw25%
Portugalete40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aretxabaleta
1.36
Portugalete
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 98 away

creates per match

Aretxabaleta
1.74
Portugalete
1.56

allows per match

Aretxabaleta
1.41
Portugalete
0.98

finishing

Aretxabaleta+0.00on par
Portugalete+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aretxabaleta ↓

Portugalete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aretxabaleta or draw
60%
Aretxabaleta or Portugalete
75%
Draw or Portugalete
65%

Winning margin

Aretxabaleta wins by 2+
16%
Portugalete wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Aretxabaleta 1+ goals
74%
Aretxabaleta 2+ goals
39%
Aretxabaleta 3+ goals
16%
Portugalete 1+ goals
77%
Portugalete 2+ goals
43%
Portugalete 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Aretxabaleta (draw refunded)
46%
Portugalete (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aretxabaleta at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Portugalete away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.98 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aretxabaleta attack 1.74 + Portugalete defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.36

Portugalete attack 1.56 + Aretxabaleta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aretxabaleta scores more
35%
level
25%
Portugalete scores more
40%

Portugalete at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Aretxabaleta 0–2 Portugalete

Portugalete beat Aretxabaleta 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra in Arechavaleta.