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Aretxabaleta vs Padura — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aretxabaleta
Aretxabaleta
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Padura
Padura
9/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Campo de Fútbol Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Aretxabaleta50%
×Draw24%
Padura26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aretxabaleta
1.71
Padura
1.16

Aretxabaleta creates 47% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Aretxabaleta
1.74
Padura
0.90

allows per match

Aretxabaleta
1.41
Padura
1.69

finishing

Aretxabaleta+0.00on par
Padura+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aretxabaleta ↓

Padura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aretxabaleta or draw
74%
Aretxabaleta or Padura
76%
Draw or Padura
50%

Winning margin

Aretxabaleta wins by 2+
27%
Padura wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aretxabaleta 1+ goals
82%
Aretxabaleta 2+ goals
51%
Aretxabaleta 3+ goals
24%
Padura 1+ goals
69%
Padura 2+ goals
32%
Padura 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aretxabaleta (draw refunded)
66%
Padura (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aretxabaleta at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Padura away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.69 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aretxabaleta attack 1.74 + Padura defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.71

Padura attack 0.90 + Aretxabaleta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aretxabaleta scores more
50%
level
24%
Padura scores more
26%

Aretxabaleta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aretxabaleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aretxabaleta vs Padura

Aretxabaleta beat Padura 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra in Arechavaleta.