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Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aretxabaleta
Aretxabaleta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
4/11/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Campo de Fútbol Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Aretxabaleta45%
×Draw25%
Lagun Onak30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aretxabaleta
1.53
Lagun Onak
1.19

Aretxabaleta creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 114 away

creates per match

Aretxabaleta
1.74
Lagun Onak
0.97

allows per match

Aretxabaleta
1.41
Lagun Onak
1.32

finishing

Aretxabaleta+0.00on par
Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aretxabaleta ↓

Lagun Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aretxabaleta or draw
70%
Aretxabaleta or Lagun Onak
75%
Draw or Lagun Onak
55%

Winning margin

Aretxabaleta wins by 2+
23%
Lagun Onak wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aretxabaleta 1+ goals
78%
Aretxabaleta 2+ goals
45%
Aretxabaleta 3+ goals
20%
Lagun Onak 1+ goals
70%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
33%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aretxabaleta (draw refunded)
60%
Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aretxabaleta at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aretxabaleta attack 1.74 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Aretxabaleta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aretxabaleta scores more
45%
level
25%
Lagun Onak scores more
30%

Aretxabaleta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aretxabaleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aretxabaleta 2 – 1 Lagun Onak

Aretxabaleta beat Lagun Onak 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra in Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta).