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Aretxabaleta vs Eibar III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aretxabaleta
Aretxabaleta
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Eibar III
Eibar III
5/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Campo de Fútbol Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Aretxabaleta49%
×Draw23%
Eibar III28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aretxabaleta
1.77
Eibar III
1.27

Aretxabaleta creates 39% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Aretxabaleta
1.74
Eibar III
1.12

allows per match

Aretxabaleta
1.41
Eibar III
1.79

finishing

Aretxabaleta+0.00on par
Eibar III+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aretxabaleta ↓

Eibar III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Aretxabaleta or draw
72%
Aretxabaleta or Eibar III
77%
Draw or Eibar III
51%

Winning margin

Aretxabaleta wins by 2+
27%
Eibar III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aretxabaleta 1+ goals
83%
Aretxabaleta 2+ goals
53%
Aretxabaleta 3+ goals
26%
Eibar III 1+ goals
72%
Eibar III 2+ goals
36%
Eibar III 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aretxabaleta (draw refunded)
64%
Eibar III (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aretxabaleta at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Eibar III away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aretxabaleta attack 1.74 + Eibar III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Eibar III attack 1.12 + Aretxabaleta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aretxabaleta scores more
49%
level
23%
Eibar III scores more
28%

Aretxabaleta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aretxabaleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Aretxabaleta 0–1 Eibar III

Eibar III beat Aretxabaleta 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra in Arechavaleta.