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Aretxabaleta vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aretxabaleta
Aretxabaleta
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
3/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Campo de Fútbol Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Aretxabaleta47%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Alavés III28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aretxabaleta
1.57
Deportivo Alavés III
1.17

Aretxabaleta creates 34% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Aretxabaleta
1.74
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

Aretxabaleta
1.41
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

Aretxabaleta+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aretxabaleta ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aretxabaleta or draw
72%
Aretxabaleta or Deportivo Alavés III
75%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
53%

Winning margin

Aretxabaleta wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aretxabaleta 1+ goals
79%
Aretxabaleta 2+ goals
46%
Aretxabaleta 3+ goals
21%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aretxabaleta (draw refunded)
62%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aretxabaleta at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aretxabaleta attack 1.74 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + Aretxabaleta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aretxabaleta scores more
47%
level
25%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
28%

Aretxabaleta at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aretxabaleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Aretxabaleta 0–2 Deportivo Alavés III

Deportivo Alavés III beat Aretxabaleta 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra in Arechavaleta.