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Aretxabaleta vs Basconia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aretxabaleta
Aretxabaleta
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Basconia
Basconia
2/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Campo de Fútbol Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Aretxabaleta35%
×Draw26%
Basconia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aretxabaleta
1.31
Basconia
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 95 away

creates per match

Aretxabaleta
1.74
Basconia
1.34

allows per match

Aretxabaleta
1.41
Basconia
0.89

finishing

Aretxabaleta+0.00on par
Basconia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aretxabaleta ↓

Basconia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Aretxabaleta or draw
61%
Aretxabaleta or Basconia
74%
Draw or Basconia
65%

Winning margin

Aretxabaleta wins by 2+
16%
Basconia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Aretxabaleta 1+ goals
73%
Aretxabaleta 2+ goals
38%
Aretxabaleta 3+ goals
14%
Basconia 1+ goals
75%
Basconia 2+ goals
40%
Basconia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Aretxabaleta (draw refunded)
48%
Basconia (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aretxabaleta at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Basconia away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.89 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aretxabaleta attack 1.74 + Basconia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.31

Basconia attack 1.34 + Aretxabaleta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aretxabaleta scores more
35%
level
26%
Basconia scores more
39%

Basconia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Basconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Aretxabaleta 1–4 Basconia

Basconia beat Aretxabaleta 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra in Arechavaleta.