Aretxabaleta 4–2 Aurrerá Vitoria: Result & Stats

Aretxabaleta

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Aurrerá Vitoria

10/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Campo de Fútbol Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aretxabaleta52%

×Draw24%

Aurrerá Vitoria24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AretxabaletaExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Vitoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.11

Aretxabaleta

1.76

Aurrerá Vitoria

1.11

Aretxabaleta creates 59% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

1.74

creates per match

0.81

1.41

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Aretxabaleta

1.74

Aurrerá Vitoria

0.81

allows per match

Aretxabaleta

1.41

Aurrerá Vitoria

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aretxabaleta+0.00on par

Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aretxabaleta ↓

Aurrerá Vitoria →

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Aretxabaleta or draw

76%

Aretxabaleta or Aurrerá Vitoria

76%

Draw or Aurrerá Vitoria

48%

Winning margin

Aretxabaleta wins by 2+

29%

Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+

Team goals

Aretxabaleta 1+ goals

83%

Aretxabaleta 2+ goals

52%

Aretxabaleta 3+ goals

26%

Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals

67%

Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals

30%

Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aretxabaleta (draw refunded)

69%

Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Aretxabaleta at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Aurrerá Vitoria away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Aretxabaleta attack 1.74 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.76

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 0.81 + Aretxabaleta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aretxabaleta scores more

52%

level

24%

Aurrerá Vitoria scores more

24%

Aretxabaleta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aretxabaleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Aretxabaleta 4–2 Aurrerá Vitoria

Aretxabaleta beat Aurrerá Vitoria 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 12, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra in Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta).

Aretxabaleta vs Aurrerá Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Aretxabaleta 4–2 Aurrerá Vitoria