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Aresimi vs Vardar Negotino — Second League 2019

Aresimi
Aresimi
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vardar Negotino
Vardar Negotino
12/7/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 15Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Aresimi65%
×Draw19%
Vardar Negotino16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aresimi
2.22
Vardar Negotino
1.01

Aresimi creates 120% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Aresimi
1.84
Vardar Negotino
1.24

allows per match

Aresimi
0.78
Vardar Negotino
2.60

finishing

Aresimi+0.00on par
Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aresimi ↓

Vardar Negotino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Aresimi or draw
84%
Aresimi or Vardar Negotino
81%
Draw or Vardar Negotino
35%

Winning margin

Aresimi wins by 2+
41%
Vardar Negotino wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aresimi 1+ goals
89%
Aresimi 2+ goals
65%
Aresimi 3+ goals
38%
Vardar Negotino 1+ goals
64%
Vardar Negotino 2+ goals
27%
Vardar Negotino 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aresimi (draw refunded)
80%
Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aresimi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Vardar Negotino away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aresimi attack 1.84 + Vardar Negotino defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.22

Vardar Negotino attack 1.24 + Aresimi defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Aresimi scores more
65%
level
19%
Vardar Negotino scores more
16%

Aresimi at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Aresimi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Aresimi 5–1 Vardar Negotino

Aresimi beat Vardar Negotino 5-1 in Second League on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.