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Aresimi vs Kozuv Gevgelija — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Aresimi
Aresimi
FT
3 – 0
Kozuv Gevgelija
Kozuv Gevgelija
2/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Aresimi76%
×Draw17%
Kozuv Gevgelija7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aresimi
2.10
Kozuv Gevgelija
0.46

Aresimi creates 357% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aresimi
2.00
Kozuv Gevgelija
0.60

allows per match

Aresimi
0.33
Kozuv Gevgelija
2.20

finishing

Aresimi+0.00on par
Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aresimi ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aresimi or draw
93%
Aresimi or Kozuv Gevgelija
83%
Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija
24%

Winning margin

Aresimi wins by 2+
50%
Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Aresimi 1+ goals
88%
Aresimi 2+ goals
62%
Aresimi 3+ goals
35%
Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals
37%
Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals
8%
Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Aresimi (draw refunded)
92%
Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aresimi at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aresimi attack 2.00 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.60 + Aresimi defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Aresimi scores more
76%
level
17%
Kozuv Gevgelija scores more
7%

Aresimi at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Aresimi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Aresimi 3–0 Kozuv Gevgelija

Aresimi beat Kozuv Gevgelija 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 1, 2026.