Aresimi 4–2 Belasica: Result & Stats

Aresimi

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Belasica

8/17/2024

Second League · Round 1Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Aresimi46%

×Draw26%

Belasica28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AresimiExpected goals in this matchBelasica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.12

Aresimi

1.51

Belasica

1.12

Aresimi creates 35% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 68 away

1.84

creates per match

1.46

0.78

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Aresimi

1.84

Belasica

1.46

allows per match

Aresimi

0.78

Belasica

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aresimi+0.00on par

Belasica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aresimi ↓

Belasica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Aresimi or draw

72%

Aresimi or Belasica

74%

Draw or Belasica

54%

Winning margin

Aresimi wins by 2+

23%

Belasica wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aresimi 1+ goals

78%

Aresimi 2+ goals

44%

Aresimi 3+ goals

19%

Belasica 1+ goals

67%

Belasica 2+ goals

31%

Belasica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aresimi (draw refunded)

62%

Belasica (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aresimi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Belasica away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aresimi attack 1.84 + Belasica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.51

Belasica attack 1.46 + Aresimi defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aresimi scores more

46%

level

26%

Belasica scores more

28%

Aresimi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aresimi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff