Arenteiro 2–1 Tarazona: Result & Stats

Arenteiro

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tarazona

J. Cuéllar 90'

Marcos Baselga 54'

Fuentes 90+3'

2/15/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Estadio de Espiñedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Arenteiro42%

×Draw30%

Tarazona28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArenteiroExpected goals in this matchTarazona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.91

Arenteiro

1.19

Tarazona

0.91

Arenteiro creates 31% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.21

creates per match

0.84

0.98

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Arenteiro

1.21

Tarazona

0.84

allows per match

Arenteiro

0.98

Tarazona

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenteiro+0.00on par

Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenteiro ↓

Tarazona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Arenteiro or draw

72%

Arenteiro or Tarazona

70%

Draw or Tarazona

58%

Winning margin

Arenteiro wins by 2+

18%

Tarazona wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arenteiro 1+ goals

70%

Arenteiro 2+ goals

33%

Arenteiro 3+ goals

12%

Tarazona 1+ goals

60%

Tarazona 2+ goals

23%

Tarazona 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Arenteiro (draw refunded)

60%

Tarazona (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenteiro at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenteiro attack 1.21 + Tarazona defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Tarazona attack 0.84 + Arenteiro defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arenteiro scores more

42%

level

30%

Tarazona scores more

28%

Arenteiro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arenteiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

35'

46'

54'

60'

64'

Adrián Cruz← Martín Solar

68'

Martinez Chechu

70'

Pepe Mena← Javier Areso

70'

L. Chaverra← E. Cedeño

80'

Borja Romero← Manu Rico

80'

Marc Álvarez← Sergio Camus

83'

J. Cuéllar← Pascu

86'

Curro Rivelott← Marcos Baselga

89'

90+4'

90'

90+3'

Arenteiro

Tarazona

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Baselga

Rodríguez

Manager: Raúl Jardiel

64'▲Adrián Cruz←▼Martín Solar

83'▲J. Cuéllar←▼Pascu

86'▲Curro Rivelott←▼Marcos Baselga

Arenteiro substitutes

CruzCuéllarRivelottLópezFernándezFigueroaEstebanLucaDiori

Manager: Juanma Barrero

60'▲Chechu←▼Lluís Llàcer

70'▲Pepe Mena←▼Javier Areso

70'▲L. Chaverra←▼E. Cedeño

80'▲Borja Romero←▼Manu Rico

80'▲Marc Álvarez←▼Sergio Camus

Tarazona substitutes

ChechuMenaChaverraRomeroÁlvarezMencíaRamírezBuylaPradera

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Arenteiro 2–1 Tarazona

Arenteiro beat Tarazona 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 15, 2025.

Goals: Marcos Baselga (54'), J. Cuéllar (90'), Fuentes (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio de Espiñedo in O Carballiño.

Arenteiro vs Tarazona — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Arenteiro 2–1 Tarazona