Arenteiro vs Pontellas: Preview & Prediction

Arenteiro

CANC

00:00

Pontellas

4/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadio de Espiñedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Arenteiro64%

×Draw23%

Pontellas12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArenteiroExpected goals in this matchPontellas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.56

Arenteiro

1.67

Pontellas

0.56

Arenteiro creates 198% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 31 away

1.30

creates per match

0.61

0.52

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Arenteiro

1.30

Pontellas

0.61

allows per match

Arenteiro

0.52

Pontellas

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenteiro+0.00on par

Pontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenteiro ↓

Pontellas →

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arenteiro or draw

88%

Arenteiro or Pontellas

77%

Draw or Pontellas

36%

Winning margin

Arenteiro wins by 2+

37%

Pontellas wins by 2+

Team goals

Arenteiro 1+ goals

81%

Arenteiro 2+ goals

50%

Arenteiro 3+ goals

23%

Pontellas 1+ goals

43%

Pontellas 2+ goals

11%

Pontellas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arenteiro (draw refunded)

84%

Pontellas (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arenteiro at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

Pontellas away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arenteiro attack 1.30 + Pontellas defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pontellas attack 0.61 + Arenteiro defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Arenteiro scores more

64%

level

23%

Pontellas scores more

12%

Arenteiro at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Arenteiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arenteiro vs Pontellas — Match Preview

Arenteiro face Pontellas on April 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Arenteiro host Pontellas at Estadio de Espiñedo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Arenteiro vs Pontellas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Arenteiro vs Pontellas — Match Preview