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Arenteiro vs Barco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenteiro
Arenteiro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barco
Barco
8/25/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio de Espiñedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Arenteiro48%
×Draw28%
Barco24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenteiro
1.36
Barco
0.86

Arenteiro creates 58% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 78 away

creates per match

Arenteiro
1.30
Barco
1.21

allows per match

Arenteiro
0.52
Barco
1.42

finishing

Arenteiro+0.00on par
Barco+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenteiro ↓

Barco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arenteiro or draw
76%
Arenteiro or Barco
72%
Draw or Barco
52%

Winning margin

Arenteiro wins by 2+
23%
Barco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arenteiro 1+ goals
74%
Arenteiro 2+ goals
39%
Arenteiro 3+ goals
16%
Barco 1+ goals
58%
Barco 2+ goals
21%
Barco 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arenteiro (draw refunded)
67%
Barco (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenteiro at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

Barco away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenteiro attack 1.30 + Barco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Barco attack 1.21 + Arenteiro defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arenteiro scores more
48%
level
28%
Barco scores more
24%

Arenteiro at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arenteiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenteiro vs Barco

Arenteiro and Barco drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de Espiñedo in O Carballiño.