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Arenteiro vs Arzúa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenteiro
Arenteiro
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Arzúa
Arzúa
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio de Espiñedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Arenteiro57%
×Draw26%
Arzúa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenteiro
1.52
Arzúa
0.69

Arenteiro creates 120% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 79 away

creates per match

Arenteiro
1.30
Arzúa
0.86

allows per match

Arenteiro
0.52
Arzúa
1.73

finishing

Arenteiro+0.00on par
Arzúa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenteiro ↓

Arzúa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arenteiro or draw
83%
Arenteiro or Arzúa
74%
Draw or Arzúa
43%

Winning margin

Arenteiro wins by 2+
30%
Arzúa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Arenteiro 1+ goals
78%
Arenteiro 2+ goals
45%
Arenteiro 3+ goals
20%
Arzúa 1+ goals
50%
Arzúa 2+ goals
15%
Arzúa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Arenteiro (draw refunded)
77%
Arzúa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenteiro at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

Arzúa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenteiro attack 1.30 + Arzúa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Arzúa attack 0.86 + Arenteiro defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Arenteiro scores more
57%
level
26%
Arzúa scores more
17%

Arenteiro at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arenteiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenteiro vs Arzúa

Arzúa beat Arenteiro 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de Espiñedo in O Carballiño.