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Arenel Movers vs Simba Bhora — Premier Soccer League 2026

Arenel Movers
Arenel Movers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Simba Bhora
Simba Bhora
11/6/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 32Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arenel Movers29%
×Draw34%
Simba Bhora37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenel Movers
0.77
Simba Bhora
0.91

Simba Bhora creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

creates per match

Arenel Movers
0.59
Simba Bhora
0.94

allows per match

Arenel Movers
0.88
Simba Bhora
0.95

finishing

Arenel Movers+0.00on par
Simba Bhora+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenel Movers ↓

Simba Bhora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–117%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Arenel Movers or draw
63%
Arenel Movers or Simba Bhora
66%
Draw or Simba Bhora
71%

Winning margin

Arenel Movers wins by 2+
9%
Simba Bhora wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arenel Movers 1+ goals
54%
Arenel Movers 2+ goals
18%
Arenel Movers 3+ goals
4%
Simba Bhora 1+ goals
60%
Simba Bhora 2+ goals
23%
Simba Bhora 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arenel Movers (draw refunded)
44%
Simba Bhora (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenel Movers at home — creates 0.59, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Simba Bhora away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenel Movers attack 0.59 + Simba Bhora defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.77

Simba Bhora attack 0.94 + Arenel Movers defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arenel Movers scores more
29%
level
34%
Simba Bhora scores more
37%

Simba Bhora at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenel Movers vs Simba Bhora

Simba Bhora beat Arenel Movers 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 6, 2024.

The match was played at Luveve Stadium in Bulawayo.