Arenel Movers 0–0 Highlanders: Result & Stats

Arenel Movers

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Highlanders

5/5/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 10Barbourfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arenel Movers32%

×Draw34%

Highlanders34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenel MoversExpected goals in this matchHighlanders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

0.85

Arenel Movers

0.82

Highlanders

0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

0.59

creates per match

0.83

0.88

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Arenel Movers

0.59

Highlanders

0.83

allows per match

Arenel Movers

0.88

Highlanders

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenel Movers+0.00on par

Highlanders+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenel Movers ↓

Highlanders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Arenel Movers or draw

66%

Arenel Movers or Highlanders

66%

Draw or Highlanders

68%

Winning margin

Arenel Movers wins by 2+

10%

Highlanders wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arenel Movers 1+ goals

56%

Arenel Movers 2+ goals

20%

Arenel Movers 3+ goals

5%

Highlanders 1+ goals

57%

Highlanders 2+ goals

21%

Highlanders 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arenel Movers (draw refunded)

49%

Highlanders (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenel Movers at home — creates 0.59, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Highlanders away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.05 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenel Movers attack 0.59 + Highlanders defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.82

Highlanders attack 0.83 + Arenel Movers defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Arenel Movers scores more

32%

level

34%

Highlanders scores more

34%

Highlanders at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff