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Arenel Movers vs Herentals — Premier Soccer League 2026

Arenel Movers
Arenel Movers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Herentals
Herentals
3/28/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 3Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arenel Movers31%
×Draw35%
Herentals33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenel Movers
0.78
Herentals
0.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 95 away

creates per match

Arenel Movers
0.59
Herentals
0.74

allows per match

Arenel Movers
0.88
Herentals
0.98

finishing

Arenel Movers+0.00on par
Herentals+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenel Movers ↓

Herentals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Arenel Movers or draw
67%
Arenel Movers or Herentals
65%
Draw or Herentals
69%

Winning margin

Arenel Movers wins by 2+
10%
Herentals wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arenel Movers 1+ goals
54%
Arenel Movers 2+ goals
18%
Arenel Movers 3+ goals
4%
Herentals 1+ goals
56%
Herentals 2+ goals
19%
Herentals 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arenel Movers (draw refunded)
49%
Herentals (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenel Movers at home — creates 0.59, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Herentals away — creates 0.74, concedes 0.98 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenel Movers attack 0.59 + Herentals defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.78

Herentals attack 0.74 + Arenel Movers defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Arenel Movers scores more
31%
level
35%
Herentals scores more
33%

Herentals at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Herentals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenel Movers vs Herentals

Arenel Movers and Herentals drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Luveve Stadium in Bulawayo.