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Arendal vs Grorud — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Arendal
Arendal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Grorud
Grorud
4/16/20232. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Norac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Arendal50%
×Draw25%
Grorud26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arendal
1.64
Grorud
1.11

Arendal creates 48% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 13 away

creates per match

Arendal
2.27
Grorud
1.08

allows per match

Arendal
1.14
Grorud
1.00

finishing

Arendal+0.00on par
Grorud+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arendal ↓

Grorud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arendal or draw
74%
Arendal or Grorud
75%
Draw or Grorud
50%

Winning margin

Arendal wins by 2+
26%
Grorud wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arendal 1+ goals
81%
Arendal 2+ goals
49%
Arendal 3+ goals
23%
Grorud 1+ goals
67%
Grorud 2+ goals
30%
Grorud 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arendal (draw refunded)
66%
Grorud (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arendal at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.14 · 71 matches

Grorud away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arendal attack 2.27 + Grorud defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Grorud attack 1.08 + Arendal defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arendal scores more
50%
level
25%
Grorud scores more
26%

Arendal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arendal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arendal vs Grorud

Arendal beat Grorud 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Norac Stadion in Arendal.