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Arendal vs Aalesund II — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Arendal
Arendal
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
6/26/20232. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Norac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Arendal62%
×Draw20%
Aalesund II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arendal
2.09
Aalesund II
0.99

Arendal creates 111% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 13 away

creates per match

Arendal
2.27
Aalesund II
0.85

allows per match

Arendal
1.14
Aalesund II
1.92

finishing

Arendal+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arendal ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Arendal or draw
83%
Arendal or Aalesund II
80%
Draw or Aalesund II
38%

Winning margin

Arendal wins by 2+
39%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arendal 1+ goals
88%
Arendal 2+ goals
62%
Arendal 3+ goals
34%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
63%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
26%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arendal (draw refunded)
79%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arendal at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.14 · 71 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arendal attack 2.27 + Aalesund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.09

Aalesund II attack 0.85 + Arendal defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Arendal scores more
62%
level
20%
Aalesund II scores more
17%

Arendal at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Arendal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arendal vs Aalesund II

Arendal beat Aalesund II 3-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on June 26, 2023.

The match was played at Norac Stadion in Arendal.