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Arenas Getxo vs Tarazona — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tarazona
Tarazona
5/22/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Municipal de Gobela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Arenas Getxo42%
×Draw32%
Tarazona27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.08
Tarazona
0.80

Arenas Getxo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 32 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
0.85
Tarazona
0.56

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.04
Tarazona
1.31

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Tarazona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
73%
Arenas Getxo or Tarazona
68%
Draw or Tarazona
58%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
17%
Tarazona wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
66%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
29%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
10%
Tarazona 1+ goals
55%
Tarazona 2+ goals
19%
Tarazona 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
61%
Tarazona (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 0.85 + Tarazona defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tarazona attack 0.56 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
42%
level
32%
Tarazona scores more
27%

Arenas Getxo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Arenas Getxo 1–0 Tarazona

Arenas Getxo beat Tarazona 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Gobela in Getxo.