Arenas Getxo 2–1 Salamanca UDS: Result & Stats

Arenas Getxo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Salamanca UDS

Javi Zarzo 43'

Jon Urkiza 23'

K. Álvarez 49'

1/11/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Campo de Fadura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arenas Getxo43%

×Draw28%

Salamanca UDS29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas GetxoExpected goals in this matchSalamanca UDS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

Arenas Getxo

1.29

Salamanca UDS

1.02

Arenas Getxo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 15 away

0.85

creates per match

1.00

1.04

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Arenas Getxo

0.85

Salamanca UDS

1.00

allows per match

Arenas Getxo

1.04

Salamanca UDS

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Salamanca UDS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw

71%

Arenas Getxo or Salamanca UDS

72%

Draw or Salamanca UDS

57%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+

19%

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals

72%

Arenas Getxo 2+ goals

37%

Arenas Getxo 3+ goals

14%

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

64%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

27%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)

59%

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 0.85 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

Salamanca UDS attack 1.00 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more

43%

level

28%

Salamanca UDS scores more

29%

Arenas Getxo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Chiapas← Antonio Amaro

23'

Jon Urkiza

43'

Javi Zarzo

49'

K. Álvarez

64'

Álex Altube← Ángel Sánchez

72'

Theo← Unai Hernández

73'

Hugo Díaz← Edu Ubis

86'

Erik Polanco← Asier Parra

88'

Kaiser Lázaro← Javi Zarzo

Arenas

Salamanca

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Zarzo

Manager: Olaizola

72'▲Theo←▼Unai Hernández

86'▲Erik Polanco←▼Asier Parra

88'▲Kaiser Lázaro←▼Javi Zarzo

Arenas Getxo substitutes

TheoPolancoLázaroRamosMarcosArnáezAulestia

Manager: Aitor Larrazábal

17'▲J. Chiapas←▼Antonio Amaro

64'▲Álex Altube←▼Ángel Sánchez

73'▲Hugo Díaz←▼Edu Ubis

Salamanca UDS substitutes

ChiapasAltubeDíazSánchezȚîrleaMellaTorres

Match Recap: Arenas Getxo vs Salamanca UDS

Arenas Getxo beat Salamanca UDS 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 11, 2020.

Goals: Jon Urkiza (23'), Javi Zarzo (43'), K. Álvarez (49').

The match was played at Campo de Fadura in Getxo.

Arenas Getxo vs Salamanca UDS — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Arenas Getxo vs Salamanca UDS