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Arenas Getxo vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
Preview
16:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
2/28/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio Municipal de Fadura
50%
Arenas Getxo
model favours
50%25%25%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arenas Getxo50%
×Draw25%
Real Unión25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.65
Real Unión
1.09

Arenas Getxo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
1.63
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.21
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
75%
Arenas Getxo or Real Unión
75%
Draw or Real Unión
50%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
27%
Real Unión wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
81%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
49%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
23%
Real Unión 1+ goals
66%
Real Unión 2+ goals
30%
Real Unión 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
67%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 1.63 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.65

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
50%
level
25%
Real Unión scores more
25%

Arenas Getxo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Getxo
WDDLW
Unión
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Arenas Getxo host Real Unión

February 28, 2027: Arenas Getxo take on Real Unión in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Arenas Getxo host Real Unión at Estadio Municipal de Fadura.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.