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Arenas Getxo vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Unión
Real Unión
3/7/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio Municipal de Gobela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Arenas Getxo35%
×Draw31%
Real Unión35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.00
Real Unión
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 46 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
0.85
Real Unión
0.96

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.04
Real Unión
1.15

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
65%
Arenas Getxo or Real Unión
69%
Draw or Real Unión
65%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
13%
Real Unión wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
63%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
26%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
8%
Real Unión 1+ goals
63%
Real Unión 2+ goals
26%
Real Unión 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
50%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 0.85 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
35%
level
31%
Real Unión scores more
35%

Arenas Getxo at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenas Getxo vs Real Unión

Arenas Getxo and Real Unión drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Gobela in Getxo.