Arenas Getxo 1–1 Real Sociedad II: Result & Stats

Arenas Getxo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Sociedad II

Leandro Martínez 43'

Aguirre 90+3'

11/29/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio Municipal de Gobela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Arenas Getxo32%

×Draw29%

Real Sociedad II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas GetxoExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.15

Arenas Getxo

1.01

Real Sociedad II

1.15

Real Sociedad II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 46 away

0.85

creates per match

1.26

1.04

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Arenas Getxo

0.85

Real Sociedad II

1.26

allows per match

Arenas Getxo

1.04

Real Sociedad II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw

61%

Arenas Getxo or Real Sociedad II

71%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

68%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+

12%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals

64%

Arenas Getxo 2+ goals

27%

Arenas Getxo 3+ goals

8%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

68%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

32%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)

45%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 0.85 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Real Sociedad II attack 1.26 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more

32%

level

29%

Real Sociedad II scores more

39%

Real Sociedad II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Leandro Martínez

60'

Ander Martín← Xeber Alkain

62'

Kepa Vieites← Álex Altube

71'

Imanol Galarreta← Aritz Aldasoro

72'

Iván Alonso← Rafa Villanueva

88'

Iñigo Arzuaga← Leandro Martínez

90+3'

Aguirre

Arenas

Real

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Olaizola

62'▲Kepa Vieites←▼Álex Altube

72'▲Iván Alonso←▼Rafa Villanueva

88'▲Iñigo Arzuaga←▼Leandro Martínez

Arenas Getxo substitutes

VieitesAlonsoArzuagaAtanganaEstradaPortilloVega

Manager: Xabi Alonso

60'▲Ander Martín←▼Xeber Alkain

71'▲Imanol Galarreta←▼Aritz Aldasoro

Real Sociedad II substitutes

MartínGalarretaAranzabeEzkurdiaRecioZeberioVeiga