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Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
Preview
15:00
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
10/18/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Municipal de Fadura
46%
Arenas Getxo
model favours
46%26%28%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arenas Getxo46%
×Draw26%
Mérida AD28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.45
Mérida AD
1.06

Arenas Getxo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
1.63
Mérida AD
0.92

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.21
Mérida AD
1.27

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
72%
Arenas Getxo or Mérida AD
74%
Draw or Mérida AD
54%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
23%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
77%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
42%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
18%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
65%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
29%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
62%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 1.63 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
46%
level
26%
Mérida AD scores more
28%

Arenas Getxo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Getxo
WDDLW
AD
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Arenas Getxo host Mérida AD

October 18, 2026: Arenas Getxo take on Mérida AD in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Arenas Getxo host Mérida AD at Estadio Municipal de Fadura.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.