Arenas Getxo 0–5 Celta de Vigo II: Result & Stats

Arenas Getxo

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Celta de Vigo II

4/12/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Municipal de Fadura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arenas Getxo42%

×Draw26%

Celta de Vigo II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas GetxoExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.27

Arenas Getxo

1.46

Celta de Vigo II

1.27

Arenas Getxo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 120 away

1.63

creates per match

1.33

1.21

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Arenas Getxo

1.63

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Arenas Getxo

1.21

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw

67%

Arenas Getxo or Celta de Vigo II

74%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

58%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+

20%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals

77%

Arenas Getxo 2+ goals

43%

Arenas Getxo 3+ goals

18%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

72%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

36%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)

56%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 1.63 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more

42%

level

26%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

33%

Arenas Getxo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff