Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arenas Getxo vs Barakaldo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
Preview
16:00
Barakaldo
Barakaldo
3/14/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Estadio Municipal de Fadura
Big match
44%
Arenas Getxo
model favours
44%26%30%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arenas Getxo44%
×Draw26%
Barakaldo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.44
Barakaldo
1.15

Arenas Getxo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
1.63
Barakaldo
1.08

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.21
Barakaldo
1.24

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Barakaldo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
70%
Arenas Getxo or Barakaldo
74%
Draw or Barakaldo
56%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
21%
Barakaldo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
76%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
42%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
18%
Barakaldo 1+ goals
68%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
32%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
59%
Barakaldo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 1.63 + Barakaldo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Barakaldo attack 1.08 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
44%
level
26%
Barakaldo scores more
30%

Arenas Getxo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Getxo
WDDLW
Barakaldo
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arenas Getxo vs Barakaldo — Match Preview

Arenas Getxo face Barakaldo on March 14, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Arenas Getxo host Barakaldo at Estadio Municipal de Fadura.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.